Spain Grid Curtailment Forecast

This methodology piece was produced by Aurora Energy Research, a member of IPFA. 

Aurora Energy Research’s updated Spanish Grid Curtailment Add-on now employs a fundamental power flow modelling approach and covers the 2025-2030 period with improved precision and granularity.

The model incorporates nodal-level demand and renewable capacity data, replacing their previous province-level analysis, and accurately replicates Red Eléctrica’s dispatch procedures for technical restrictions. This forecast integrates expected grid reinforcements (lines, substations, transformers) aligned with the latest National Network Development plan.

Recognising infrastructure project uncertainties, Aurora provides a sensitivity scenario with additional grid reinforcements beyond their Central case. This enhanced methodology delivers more robust curtailment projections across all peninsular provinces, with biannual updates scheduled to reflect evolving market conditions.