2026 Global Project Finance Outlook: Resilient Foundations Meet Expanding Frontiers

This report was produced by DBRS Morningstar, a member of IPFA. 

DBRS Morningstar expects a stable performance from the project finance sector, with a neutral outlook for 2026. Credit fundamentals remain underpinned by long-term contracted revenues, strong counterparties, fixed-rate amortising debt structures, and the essentiality of the underlying assets.

Key highlights include the following:

– The project finance sector is entering 2026 with the structural resilience that has supported its performance through several years of macroeconomic and geopolitical volatility.
– The sector is expected to see strong transaction volumes across a widening set of asset classes. While power generation remains the core of the project finance market, minority-interest transactions and emerging technologies are also expected to be key themes in 2026.
– For project finance lenders, these opportunities are accompanied by challenges, including increasing refinancing risk and transaction complexity.